A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
