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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Team Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Unclear

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.