Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The typical number of everyday killings per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not signal enhanced national stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the least figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide data to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is particularly true given the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.