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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.