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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current field is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising together. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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